ON OUR RADAR
Four conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts  
 

➤ Kenya: An Al-Shabaab attack on the Manda Bay Airfield on Sunday killed one American soldier and two U.S. military contractors. Crisis Group expert Murithi Mutiga says the attack marked the first time that the militant group had targeted a Kenyan military facility housing U.S. forces. Al-Shabaab remains a resilient organisation that has shown a continued capacity to stage assaults in Somalia and neighbouring countries, despite a decade-long effort by African Union troops to combat its insurgency. 

➤ Libya: Presidents Erdoğan and Putin called for a ceasefire in Libya, only days after Ankara deployed Turkish officers and allied Syrian fighters. Crisis Group expert Claudia Gazzini says Turkey’s intervention, aimed at preventing the Tripoli government’s collapse and safeguarding a maritime deal, is not entirely at odds with the sudden call for a ceasefire. Ankara hopes that recalibrating the balance of power on the ground will create more propitious conditions for peace talks, but it is unclear whether the rival Libyan factions that Ankara and Moscow respectively support will actually halt hostilities.

➤ Nigeria: Chad withdrew its 1,200-strong military force from Nigeria’s northern Borno region. The force was deployed in early 2019 to fight the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP), a Boko Haram splinter faction. Crisis Group consultant Vincent Foucher says Chad’s withdrawal may be motivated by the need to address mounting jihadist attacks on its own territory. In Nigeria, there is a risk that ISWAP could quickly capitalise on the departure. The group launched an unsuccessful attack soon after the withdrawal on the former Chadian base in Monguno, one of the largest cities in the state

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Rwanda to set up green bank to finance climate investments

Government is set to facilitate the creation of a financial institution in Rwanda that will be solely dedicated to funding projects that promote climate change resilience.

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Ghana to set up Diasporan Savings and Investment Account – Minister

Mr Ken Ofori-Atta, the Minister of Finance, has announced plans to establish a Diasporan Savings and Investment Account to attract people of African-American descent to invest in the various sectors of the country.

Dubbed the African Sankofa Account, the plan, which is to be rolled out in the next three months, will explore ways to target African retail other than institutional investors in the Caribbean and the Americas.

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Towards a single currency: from CFA franc to the Eco

One important step forwards towards a single currency was made on 21 December 2019 when Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara – who is also the current president of the UEMOA – and French President Emmanuel Macron announced plans to reform the CFA franc, the common currency of the eight UEMOA member countries. Some 134 million people in Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo use the CFA franc. Under the reform plan: the CFA franc will be renamed the “Eco”; France will withdraw from all governance bodies; and the Bank of France will no longer hold half of the foreign reserves. However, the Eco will continue to be pegged to the Euro and France will retain, for the time being, its role as its financial guarantor

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ON OUR RADAR
Two conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts  
 

The Weeks of 20 December 2019 – 3 January 2020

A Sustainable Policy for Rohingya Refugees in Bangladesh Bangladesh is hosting nearly a million Rohingya refugees who have little hope of going home any time soon. The government should move to improve camp living conditions, in particular by lifting the education ban and fighting crime. Donors should support such steps.

Avoiding the Resurgence of Intercommunal Violence in Eastern Chad Intercommunal violence, particularly between Arabs and non-Arabs, has ravaged eastern Chad throughout 2019 and could further threaten the country’s stability. The government should initiate a debate on managing pastoralism and support an inclusive conference on the East. Also available in: Français

Rescuing Iraq from the Iran-U.S. Crossfire Ominous developments – attacks on U.S. personnel in Iraq, U.S. retaliation and turmoil at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad – could drag Iraq deeper into the U.S.-Iranian confrontation and spark direct clashes between Washington and Tehran. Urgent steps are needed to break this predictable but perilous cycle.

10 Conflicts to Watch in 2020 Friends and foes alike no longer know where the U.S. stands. As Washington overpromises and underdelivers, regional powers are seeking solutions on their own – both through violence and diplomacy.

Counting Down to North Korea’s Year-end Deadline North Korea is testing the U.S., issuing threats and launching short-range missile tests while talks over its nuclear program have stalled. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Duyeon Kim explains what could be motivating Pyongyang’s escalation and what to expect in 2020.

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Elements of change: Climate and conflict in Africa

Climate change is a global phenomenon that affects all life on earth. For the first time ever, the entire planet is undergoing a singular climatic transformation. Globally, land has already warmed 1.5°C and, owing to past greenhouse gas emissions and inertia in the climate system, the earth and its atmosphere will continue to warm until around mid-century, even if all emissions stopped today. Unprecedented heatwaves, food shortages and extreme storms will likely hit us before 2030 and intensify with further warming.

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Securitisation without representation: Yet another reason why Africa needs a permanent seat on the UN Security Council

Climate change is increasingly acknowledged as a global security issue, and the UN Security Council’s mandate over it is growing. Yet, Africa still lacks equal standing with other regions and the permanent members of the Security Council. Without permanent representation of Africa on the Security Council, the continent is rendered a subject, not an agent, of global climate governance.

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Mission possible? The Geopolitical Commission and the partnership with Africa

The new European Commission takes office against a backdrop of global challenges emanating from near and far, including climate change, trade wars and cyber threats. With this in mind, Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen, in her opening statement and mission letters, communicated a vision of a commission that is “more strategic, more assertive and more united” in its approach to foreign policy. Characterising her incoming team as a “Geopolitical Commission”, she emphasised the need for the EU to protect and update multilateralism, to develop greater strategic autonomy and to better link internal and external policy.

This brief explores the opportunity that this geopolitical framing offers for a more strategic EU-Africa relationship – and a real partnership of equals and mutual interest. At the same time, it points to the dangers of empty rhetoric for the EU’s credibility as a foreign policy actor. In renaming the European Commission’s development portfolio “international partnerships” and outlining plans for a new comprehensive strategy for Africa, von der Leyen seeks to signal a more political approach. Yet, the EU will need to show that this time it has the will and ability to move from words to meaningful action.

First and foremost, if partnership is the aim, the Commission needs to address the question of whether this is a strategy “for” Africa or rather “with” Africa. Further, unless the Commission and member states allow the European External Action Service (EEAS) to play a more significant role in coordinating Africa policy, the political and strategic elements of the EU-Africa relationship are unlikely to be sufficiently prioritised. Parallel and competing EU structures for working with Africa risk undermining a strategic continent to continent approach and creating breaks on African integration. Any comprehensive strategy will have to honestly acknowledge and address the fundamental contradictions inherent in these multiple EU structures.

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