Crisis Group - New Podcast : Kenya and Somalia Quarrel Over Offshore Oil
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Listen to the podcast here
Crisis Group - Open Letter to the Friends of Sudan
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Read the whole open letter here
Crisis Group – The Week of 29 November – 6 December 2019
ON OUR RADAR
Three conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts
➤ Myanmar: Myanmar’s leader Aung San Suu Kyi will speak at the International Court of Justice on Wednesday to respond to charges of genocide against Rohingya Muslims. Crisis Group expert Richard Horsey says Aung San Suu Kyi likely feels that she must do all she can to defend against what most people in Myanmar see as biased and politically-motivated charges. Her defence of Myanmar's conduct will galvanise public support domestically, but will almost certainly further strain relations with the West.
➤ Turkey-Libya: Ankara and the Tripoli-based government signed an agreement last Friday on maritime border delimitations in the eastern Mediterranean. Crisis Group expert Claudia Gazzini says for months Turkey has demanded Tripoli's recognition of its claims in the sea in exchange for continued military assistance. The deal thus signals Prime Minister Serraj's new-found determination to break the siege of Tripoli by Field Marshal Haftar but it also risks undermining ongoing UN-backed efforts to end hostilities and could complicate Ankara’s disputes with Greece, the EU and Egypt over energy exploration.
➤ Ukraine: Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany meet in Paris on Monday for the first Normandy format meeting for more than three years aimed at breaking the stalemate in Ukraine's five-year-old war. Crisis Group expert Katharine-Quinn Judge says that while conciliatory moves made by President Zelenskyy have paved the way for the summit, both Kyiv and Moscow will likely stick to their red lines. A comprehensive path toward peace is unlikely to emerge, but the meeting could make progress toward exchanging prisoners and safely disengaging troops along the front line in Donbas.
Read the whole article here
Crisis Group – The Week of 22 – 29 November 2019
ON OUR RADAR
Four conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts
➤ Lebanon: Dozens of demonstrators were injured in violent clashes in Beirut, Tripoli and smaller towns as tensions mount among rival political groups amid a struggle to find a new prime minister and form a new government. Crisis Group expert Heiko Wimmen says that without a new government that can launch an emergency rescue plan to stabilse the country's sliding economy, serious social upheaval must be expected as tens of thousands are at risk of losing their income, savings and work.
➤ Mali: Thirteen French soldiers were killed after two helicopters collided during a mission targeting Islamic State-linked jihadists in Mali. Crisis Group expert Mathieu Pellerin says the incident draws attention to France’s military mission in the Sahel, involving 4,500 troops, that has been struggling to respond to a surge of increasingly sophisticated attacks by jihadist groups and their expanding recruitment in recent months. A general rise in skills and more fluid command structures are complicating counter-insurgency efforts.
➤ Mexico: President Trump indicated on Tuesday that the U.S. plans to designate Mexico’s drug cartels as foreign terrorist organisations. Crisis Group expert Falko Ernst says the decision fails to understand that the conflict is not about the “good state” versus the “evil cartels”, as the dividing line between the two is very porous. The designation would merely continue the heavy-handed militarised approach that over the past thirteen years has failed to defeat Mexico’s organised crime.
Crisis Group – The Week of 15 – 22 November 2019
ON OUR RADAR
Four conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts
➤ Georgia: Widespread public anger led to street protests in Tbilisi after the parliament failed to adopt proportional representation as the country’s electoral system. Crisis Group expert Olesya Vartanyan says with no deal in sight that can end the current impasse and unrest, political tensions will remain high and difficult to manage. To end the crisis, the ruling party should initiate discussions on electoral reform.
➤ Israel/Palestine: The Trump administration announced this week that it did not view Israeli settlements in the West Bank as a violation of international law. Crisis Group expert Ofer Zalzberg says the move accelerates Washington’s politicisation of international law although in itself it is unlikely to prompt major changes on the ground. However, it provides tailwind for those who wish to annex the West Bank, and undermines whatever credibility the U.S. still retained as a potential broker of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
➤ Ukraine-Russia: Moscow returned three Ukrainian naval vessels that it seized last November in the Black Sea. Crisis Group expert Katharine Quinn-Judge says few in Kyiv are impressed with what they see as a token and long-overdue gesture. Hardliners see it as part of a Russian campaign to appear conciliatory while using Kyiv’s newfound appetite for peace to extract concessions. But many Ukrainians hope the 9 December Normandy format summit with Russia, Germany and France will bring new momentum to end the five-year-old conflict.
Crisis Group – The Week of 6 – 13 December 2019
ON OUR RADAR
Three conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts
➤ Niger: At least 71 soldiers were killed in a raid by Islamist militants in western Niger, the third assault on the Inates military base in recent months and the deadliest attack against the Nigerien military in decades. Crisis Group expert Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim says the deadliness of the attack demonstrates that the jihadists are gaining confidence to frontally attack military bases and inflict heavy losses on the army. The Nigerien government and its Western partners should supplement any military action with a political approach that includes efforts to engage in a dialogue with militants.
➤ U.S.-Iran: Washington and Tehran exchanged two prisoners on Saturday in a rare instance of diplomatic engagement. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says the successful swap demonstrates that both sides are capable of mutually beneficial deal-making and can deliver. But it is questionable whether they can build on this to not only resolve other detainee cases, but also widen channels of communication in order to de-escalate bilateral tensions.
Côte d'Ivoire banks on reforms to improve investment climate
UNCTAD proposes measures to create sustainable and inclusive long-term growth and address the most pressing development issues facing Ivorians.Côte d'Ivoire is on an economic reform drive to make the country a more attractive place to do business.
The west African country is pushing ahead with reforms to boost foreign direct investment (FDI), which has been on the rise since 2012 but remains low in relative and absolute terms compared to other countries in the region.
Also, FDI is highly concentrated in Abidjan and significant economic and social inequalities exist both between urban and rural areas and between the economic capital and the rest of the country.
“The reforms undertaken by the government so far as part of the country’s national development plans are commendable, but more needs to be done,” said Chantal Dupasquier, chief of UNCTAD’s investment policy reviews section.
Read the whole article here
Long term trends across security and development in the Sahel
Following the 2013 French military intervention in Mali, significant attention has been paid to issues of security and development in the Sahel. The stability of Sahelian countries and the capacity of their governments to manage social change and resulting tensions have major security implications for migration flows, economic development, and health concerns both for local people and for the broader international community. The rise of violent religious extremism in the region and the varied efforts to curtail its spread have raised international alarm and prompted important resources to be invested by both domestic governments and foreign partners. This paper offers a broad overview of the current situation in the Sahel paying attention to the intersecting and overlapping issues of security and development. The paper then interrogates three central themes—poverty, migration, and conflict—adopting a historical perspective to examine long-term trends in the region. In doing so, it aims to contribute to contemporary policy discussions by offering evidence of how these dynamics have either changed or persisted across this centrally important region during the last several decades.
Nurmara - September 2019
30. Doing business is easier said than done
27. Africa’s car market needs an unorthodox approach
26. Time for Africa to ditch fossil fuels?
25. Everybody wants sustainable development - few want to pay for it
24. Nigeria wants to fix its refineries - again
23. Signs of economic stress in Egypt
20. Russia’s diplomacy in Africa is going nuclear
19. Why don’t Africa’s resource exporters collaborate?
18. What happened to the Single African Sky?
17. There is nothing surprising about Tunisia’s election
16. The desert won’t fix Africa’s power problem - not yet anyway
13. Africa needs to brace itself for more austerity
12. Don’t forget about Africa’s debt problem
11. Same story different day for South Africa
10. Africa’s tourism sector needs less talk, more action
09. Digital ‘leapfrogging’ is easier said than done
06. Keep an eye on the Sahel
05. Who cares about inequality?
04. There is much unfinished business in Algeria
03. Nigeria: Africa’s dysfunctional economic giant
02. Talk is beating action on Africa's youth
Crisis Group - The Week of 26 July - 2 August 2019
ON OUR RADAR
Three conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts
➤ Nigeria: A Boko Haram attack on a funeral and villages near Maiduguri in north east Nigeria on Saturday killed over 70 people. Crisis Group expert Nnamdi Obasi says despite the government’s insistence that it has defeated Boko Haram, this incident, amid a recent surge of attacks, underscores the insurgency’s resilience, the military's deficiencies and the need for a broader strategy that addresses the factors that contribute to the insurgency, including weak governance and a lack of basic services.
➤ Sudan: Protests erupted Monday in the city of El-Obeid in response to an incident in which security forces opened fire on demonstrators protesting fuel and bread shortages, killing six, including four children, and injuring 60. Crisis Group expert Murithi Mutiga says the repeated violent crackdowns on protesters appear to be attempts by elements of the ruling junta to derail the transition and underscore the need for concerted international pressure to push the ruling Transitional Military Council to back down, finalise outstanding details of a power-sharing deal agreed in July and accept a civilian-led transition.