World trade is expected to lose momentum in the second half of 2022 and remain subdued in 2023 as multiple shocks weigh on the global economy. WTO economists now predict global merchandise trade volumes will grow by 3.5% in 2022—slightly better than the 3.0% forecast in April. For 2023, however, they foresee a 1.0% increase—down sharply from the previous estimate of 3.4%.

MAIN POINTS

• World merchandise trade volume is expected to grow 3.5% in 2022 before slowing to 1.0% in 2023 (revised down from 3.4%).
• World GDP at market exchange rates will increase by 2.8% in 2022 and by 2.3% in 2023 (revised down from 3.2%).
• Trade and output will be weighed down by several related shocks, including the war in Ukraine, high energy prices, inflation, and monetary tightening.
• Merchandise exports of the CIS region fell 10.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 while imports plunged 21.7%.
• The Middle East will have the strongest trade volume growth of any region in 2022 on both the export side (14.6%) and the import side (11.1%).
• The value of merchandise trade in U.S. dollars was up 17% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2022.
• Energy prices rose 78% year-on-year in August while food prices were up 11%, grain prices were up 15% and fertilizer prices were up 60%.

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