Date: Wednesday, 12 January 202 12:30  14:30 (London)

West Africa is projected to grow at a steady rate for the 2022 fiscal year. Nigeria’s economy is set to rebound following a recession in 2020 due to the fall in demand and subsequent fall in oil prices as a result of the pandemic, whilst the country’s GDP is set to grow by 2.9% with an increase per capita of 0.4% of GDP. Inflation is set to drop to 11% with both current accounts and budget balance as a percentage of GDP improving. Ghana, the other regional powerhouse, remains in a position whereby fiscal and debt risk will undermine its economic credibility. 2022 is set to see GDP growth rates of 4.1% coming off the back of 2 years of recession and high spending in relation to tax intake from the government. GDP per capita is set to rise by 2.0% with inflation stagnating at an overall average of 8.0% for all quarters of 2022. However, Ghana’s foreign currency debt is set to rise to over 70% of GDP. The Gambia, as well as, Sierra Leone are set to grow by approximately 5-6% respectively, whilst GDP per capita is set to increase by 2.3%. Additionally, due to high levels of expenditure as a result of COVID-19, as well as high rates of foreign currency debt and deteriorating exchange rates, both Ghana and Sierra are set to see a sharp rise in national debt as a per cent of the annual GDP. On the whole, West Africa is set to grow at a slower rate that the rest of the continent, however, all are projected relative growth following increased levels of public debt as a fallout from the pandemic.

The political climate across West Africa remains less volatile than other regions of Africa. Sanctions imposed by ECOWAS on Guinea and Mali, following the recent coup in Guinea and putsch in Mali, suggests greater cross-regional collaboration in the coming year.. Despite high levels of corruption and challenging business conditions in key markets, West Africa remains relatively stable, and elections in Mali, Gambia and Sierra Leone will dictate FDI flow and political stability, as the region rebounds from the fallout of the COVID 19 pandemic.

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