The European Business Council for Africa

Four conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts  

➤ Iran: Iran on Monday exceeded the limit on its low-enriched uranium stockpile permitted by the 2015 nuclear deal and signaled its intention to begin enrichment above allowable levels. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says that while Iran’s decision to surpass the volume cap does not present an immediate proliferation risk, it is another step in the escalatory dynamic triggered by the U.S. administration’s decision to exit the nuclear deal.

➤ Korean Peninsula: U.S. President Trump became the first sitting president to set foot on North Korean soil on Sunday. Crisis Group expert Christopher Green says Trump's hour-long meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was largely symbolic. The two sides did agree on one thing, though: the revival of working-level talks for the first time since the collapse of their February summit in Hanoi. The key will be for both sides to walk away from the maximalist positions that doomed the Hanoi summit.

Libya: An airstrike on the Tajoura migrant detention centre on the outskirts of Tripoli killed more than 40 migrants on Tuesday, the single most deadly incident since the outbreak of hostilities in Tripoli in April. Crisis Group expert Claudia Gazzini says despite indignation in European capitals, the attack is unlikely to trigger anything more than verbal condemnation against Haftar’s forces, if indeed it is proven that they were behind the airstrike.

➤ Sudan: Opposition leaders and the ruling military council on Thursday agreed to a power-sharing agreement. Crisis Group expert Alan Boswell says this is not the finishing line. The ruling council is a bad faith actor but is also fast running out of wiggle room to cling to power on its own. Pressure must continue to ensure it sticks to the path forward that has been agreed.

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