The European Business Council for Africa

Three conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts  

➤ Mali: In an attack on the village of Ogossagou, an ethnic armed group killed at least 157 people on Saturday, the latest episode of ethnic-based violence motivated by tensions over land and anxiety over jihadist groups. Crisis Group expert Jean-Hervé Jezequel says violence affects all communities but the pace, scale and locations of massacres specifically targeting the Peul community are increasing.

Israel/Palestine: Following a violent flare-up triggered by rocket fire from Gaza into Israel, a tentative calm appeared to take hold on Wednesday following mediation efforts by Egyptian and UN delegations. Crisis Group expert Tareq Baconi says that while neither side desires all-out war, the fragile ceasefire is set to come under additional strain as Palestinians prepare to mark the one year anniversary of the “Great March of Return” on 30 March and the “Nakba” on 15 May.

➤ Yemen: Saudi Arabia’s military intervention in Yemen entered its fifth year on Tuesday. Crisis Group expert Peter Salisbury says that optimism in the UN-brokered Stockholm Agreement has faded since December and if parties fail to implement it soon, particularly in Hodeida, we may see a dramatic escalation in violence and the prospects for peace significantly delayed. 

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