The European Business Council for Africa

The Week of 7 – 14 December 2018

Three conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts  

➤ Yemen: Yemen’s Huthi rebels and internationally-recognised government agreed to a ceasefire across the governorate of Hodeida on Thursday. The UN hopes it will lead to the demilitarisation of the Red Sea trade corridor. Crisis Group expert Peter Salisbury says that while the deal is a step in the right direction, it will take months to translate the agreement into meaningful results.

➤ Turkey-Syria: President Erdoğan said Wednesday that Turkey would soon launch a military operation east of Syria's Euphrates river, in territory currently held by U.S.-led international forces and U.S.-backed Kurdish-led forces that Turkey considers terrorists. Crisis Group expert Sam Heller says his remarks will further stress U.S.-Turkish ties and send U.S. officials scrambling to head off a Turkish attack.

➤ Venezuela: Russia deployed two strategic bombers to Venezuela on Monday. Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson says Moscow has previously staged similar shows of support for Caracas, usually at times of strategic tension with Washington, while President Maduro, who faces increasing international pressure to restore democracy, wants to show he has powerful friends.

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